New Orleans anxiously watches hurricane's path
Published Thursday August 28th, 2008
Bad memories | Katrina anniversary is Friday
NEW ORLEANS - On the cusp of hurricane Katrina's third anniversary, New Orleans watch nervously Wednesday as tropical storm Gustav threatened to rebuild into a perilous Category 3 hurricane that could test everything the city has rebuilt.
Although the storm's winds dropped to below hurricane intensity after it washed over the island of Hispaniola, forecasters expected Gustav to strengthen significantly over the warm waters of the Gulf of Mexico.
But they also say predicting exactly where it will go several days in advance is impossible.
"We know it's going to head into the gulf. After that, we're not sure where it's heading," said Rebecca Waddington, a meteorologist at the National Hurricane Centre in Miami. "For that reason, everyone in the gulf needs to be monitoring the storm."
City officials were taking no chances, and drawing blueprints of how to evacuate the city if necessary. New Orleans plans to institute a mandatory evacuation order should a Category 3 or stronger hurricane be within 72 hours of the city.
At a suburban Lowe's store, employees said portable generators, gasoline cans, bottled water and batteries were selling briskly. Hotels across south Louisiana reported busy booking business as coastal residents considered their inland refuge options.
Steve Weaver, 82, and his wife Helen stayed for Katrina - and wound up being plucked off the roof of their house and by a U.S. Coast Guard helicopter. This time, Weaver said he has no inclination to stay.
"Everybody learned a lesson about staying, so the highways will be twice as packed this time," Weaver said.
Katrina struck New Orleans on Aug. 29, 2005, and its storm surge blasted through the levees designed to protect the city. Eighty per cent of New Orleans was flooded, which set into motion a multibillion-dollar rebuilding program.
Since then, the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers has spent billions of dollars to improve the levee system. Though experts say the city and surrounding region are safer from hurricanes, the improved levee protection is incomplete and holes remain.
Floodgates have been installed on drainage canals in New Orleans to cut off storm surge from entering the city, and levees have been raised and in many places strengthened with concrete.
Robert Turner Jr., the regional levee director, said the levee system can handle the kind of storm that occurs every three decades, what the corps calls a 30-year storm. By comparison, Katrina was a 396-year storm.
"There's always the possibility if it comes from the right direction, and if it is large enough to create storm surge in the realm of Katrina, that there could be overtopping" of levees, Turner said.
Gustav formed Monday and roared ashore Tuesday as a Category 1 hurricane near the southern Haitian city of Jacmel. Its top winds were near 145 kilometres an hour, toppling palm trees and flooding the city's Victorian wooden buildings.
It triggered flooding and landslides that killed at least 11 people in the Caribbean.
Gustav has since weakened into a tropical storm and appeared headed for Cuba, though forecasters said it was likely to grow stronger in the coming days by feeding on warm open water.
David Nolan, an associate professor at University of Miami's Rosenstiel School of Marine and Atmospheric Science, says the uncertainty surrounding the track and strength of Gustav is "very large."
Forecasts show the storm hitting anywhere from the Florida Panhandle to Texas.
Making a comparison to hurricane Katrina is way too speculative at this early point in the forecast, he said. "You can't look at this storm and make any comparisons to Katrina," he said.
Just blocks from where a levee breached in the Lakeview neighbourhood during Katrina, Lawson (Sonny) Brannan, a construction company owner, was busy renovating a client's home Wednesday. A wall of Katrina-driven water up to 4.5 metres high wiped out the home.
Brannan calmly went about his business, but nonetheless kept a watchful eye on the weather.
"I'm not going to worry about it until I see it in the gulf, then I'll make my decisions," Brannan said.
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