Slowdown | Diversity in the economy

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By SHAWN BERRY
berry.shawn@dailygleaner.com

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The Fredericton region has seen plenty of traction in the development sector in recent years, and as the dark clouds of economic crisis converge, officials are hopeful that momentum can be sustained.

But the question is for how long?

Those involved with economic development in and around central New Brunswick say the region is well-poised to weather the economic storm.

Lower fuel prices, the lower Canadian dollar and the building boom taking place in southern New Brunswick will all play in the Fredericton region's favour.

"The American market has collapsed for housing and auto parts, but Americans are still buying things. It's just a little slower," said John Flynn, executive director of Enterprise Central NB.

"Most of our companies are optimistic," he said. "Of course, things could change."

But with energy and fuel prices falling, things are a bit better.

"The other thing is our dollar is down, and though they may not be selling as much to the U.S., local companies are finding that their margins are better."

There are rays of optimism in turbulent times, he said.

Work is progressing at Sisson Brook for a mine that could employ 700 during the construction phase and then 250 once operating.

A wood pellet mill in the Nashwaak area is expected to open soon, and two mills in the region are upgrading.

Coun. Dan Keenan, chairman of Fredericton's development committee, said there's no doubt we're treading through difficult times.

"I have cautious optimism. We can be optimistic because we already have lots of work underway."

The city has set a development record for 2008 with $154 million in building permits issued by the end of November, but Keenan noted that while permits were issued - and preliminary work on many of those projects began last year - a number of them will see much of the value of that work done in 2009.

"The year 2009 may end up being stronger activity wise, though it may not be reflected in the permits."

Kennan said there's optimism in the fact developers are looking at the long term. If they didn't have faith in the future, they'd be withholding their money.

"If you look around our community, there's still lots of activity. We're going to have challenges like every other community, but we have a strong base that is going to help us weather the storm," he said.

Doug Motty, general manager of Enterprise Fredericton, said that doesn't mean the region is insulated from economic turmoil.

"Some of our IT, engineering, manufacturing sectors are probably seeing the effects of that, but we're not at the point of seeing significant downturns. They're tightening their belts, reviewing expansions they had planned and ensuring they're the right things to do."

Motty said he's not aware of any local companies facing difficulty accessing capital.

The benefit for Fredericton, he said, is that it doesn't rely on one single sector.