Our NFL Week 11 Picks

Published Saturday November 21st, 2009
B4

Associated Press

Against The Spread Record:

Last Week: 9-6; Season: 69-74-1

Straight Up Record:

Last Week: 9-6; Season: 95-49

Cleveland plus 3 1/2 at Detroit

Straight Up: Detroit 13-6; Against The Spread: Detroit minus 3 1/2.

Buffalo plus 8 1/2 at Jacksonville

Straight Up: Jacksonville 20-10; Against The Spread: Jacksonville minus 8 1/2.

Pittsburgh minus 10 at Kansas City

Straight Up: Pittsburgh 24-9; Against The Spread: Pittsburgh minus 10.

Indianapolis pick 'em at Baltimore

Straight Up: Indianapolis 24-20; Against The Spread: Indianapolis at pick 'em.

Atlanta plus 6 1/2 at New York Giants

Straight Up: New York Giants 22-14; Against The Spread: N.Y. Giants minus 6 1/2.

San Francisco plus 6 1/2 at Green Bay

Straight Up: Green Bay 20-17; Against The Spread: San Francisco plus 6 1/2.

Seattle plus 11 at Minnesota

Straight Up: Minnesota 30-13; Against The Spread: Minnesota minus 11.

Washington plus 11 at Dallas

Straight Up: Dallas 21-13; Against The Spread: Washington plus 11.

New Orleans minus 11 at Tampa Bay

Straight Up: New Orleans 32-17; Against The Spread: New Orleans minus 11.

Arizona minus 9 at St. Louis

Straight Up: Arizona 27-16; Against The Spread: Arizona minus 9.

New York Jets plus 10 1/2 at New England

Straight Up: New England 30-17; Against The Spread: New England minus 10 1/2.

Cincinnati minus 9 1/2 at Oakland

Straight Up: Cincinnati 24-9; Against The Spread: Cincinnati minus 9 1/2.

San Diego plus 3 at Denver

Straight Up: San Diego 23-10; Against The Spread: San Diego plus 3.

Philadelphia minus 3 at Chicago

Straight Up: Philadelphia 17-16; Against The Spread: Chicago plus 3.

Monday Night

Tennessee plus 4 1/2 at Houston

Straight Up: Tennessee 20-17; Against The Spread: Tennessee plus 4 1/2.

David Ritchie

Against The Spread Record:

Last Week: 8-7; Season: 66-77-1

Straight Up Record:

Last Week: 9-6; Season: 90-54

Take Detroit minus 3 1/2 over Cleveland

A game for the ages, yeah, like about 20 years ago. Difference with these two moribund franchises is one seems to have a pulse and getting better, Lions, with an aggressive young coach in Schwartz and a potentially dominant QB in Stafford. The other, Brownies, have a beleagured coach in Mangini with no personality and little talent. LIONS, 27-6.

Take Buffalo plus 8 1/2 over Jacksonville

Hard to figure how a team who has just fired the head coach (Jauron) will react with a new guy at the mid-way point. Suffice to say, it was long overdue. Already, Fewell has impacted, changing it up at the quarterback position. Good move considering Edwards' ineptitude. Jags unpredictable to say the least. JAGS, 17-13.

Take Kansas City plus 10 over Pittsburgh

Just a gut feel the Chiefs are going to have some success moving the ball against the Steely Ones who are hurting a bit on defence at this point. Rotheslisberger still gives Steely Ones huge edge offensively. But it's in K.C., the rotten apple has been thrown out, and Chiefs are coming off a win. All good things. STEELERS, 24-17.

Take Indianapolis even over Baltimore

Interesting matchup, particularly since this game's in Baltimore where the Colts used to reside. So plenty of resentment lingers. Mind you, after escaping with their lives against Pats week ago, you gotta feel Manning and Co. will be pumped up with the prosperct of a possible unbeaten season. Unlike most weeks where Manning is the focal point, this week it's Indy's defence that needs to respond. COLTS, 17-14.

Take N.Y. Giants minus 6 1/2 over Atlanta

Well, the G-Men had a bye week to regroup and figure out exactly what's gone wrong over the past four weeks or so. From looking like the dominant team in the NFC, New York now has to find a way to win a game for a change. Go back to running the ball and play good defence. Simple enough. Falcons banged up with Turner on the gimp and QB Ryan throwing too many INTs. GIANTS, 27-20.

Take Green Bay minus 6 1/2 over San Francisco

First instinct is to take defensively-tough 49ers, who made Bears' QB Cutler look like a high schooler last Thursday night. But even though they picked off five Cutler passes, the offence could muster but 10 points and they barely won. Smith is still shaky at QB, and if Gore doesn't run 100 yards, they're in deep trouble. PACKERS, 27-6.

Take Minnesota minus 11 over Seattle

Tricky game because of the spread. Seahawks just aren't very good when it comes to the red zone (opponent's 20-yard line). Vikes among the league's best, mainly because Petersen is the best running back in the business. Hasselbeck has been harassed all season as the Hawks' QB. Wait until he meets Vikes' pass-rusher extraordinaire in Allen. Look out down below. VIKINGS, 34-14.

Take Washington plus 11 over Dallas

Traditional rivalry has lost much of its luster, obviously, with the demise of the Redskins into a have-not team. But after weeks of offensive futility, Campbell finally put some numbers on the board last week, and lo and behold, the Redskins managed to beat Denver. Dallas QB Romo was simply awful as Cowboys lost to Packmen. So anything is possible. COWBOYS, 27-17.

Take Tampa Bay plus 11 over New Orleans

Lot of points to spot here, and Saints did come up a wee bit short against Lambs week ago. Gotta be impressed with Bucs' resilience, beating Packmen and just about beating Dolphins week ago. And here they are at home facing one of the league's premier teams with an unbeaten record. Plenty of motivation to keep up the intensity. SAINTS, 24-14.

Take Arizona minus 9 over St. Louis

One thing about Warner, he can look so bad on one series, and on the next, hit five or six passes in a row leading the Cards to the end zone. He's always had the big-strike capability, and it makes this a compelling team to watch. Lambs are basically a team that relies on the big stud at running back in Jackson. Not enough offence to keep pace with the high-octane Cards. CARDINALS, 33-10.

Take New England minus 10 1/2 over N.Y. Jets

Hard to figure how Pats will respond in the wake of the coach's brain cramp against Indy week ago. Not many teams would be able to put a positive spin on blowing a 30-14 lead, but heck, that's why the flat-line personality of Belichick works so well in the up and down NFL. One thing about Brady Bunch, they don't really care what the critics say. Good for them. PATRIOTS, 44-10.

Take Cincinnati minus 9 1/2 over Oakland

Coming off emotional victory over arch-rival Steelers, there's always concern of a letdown for Bengals. Playing Renegades in the Black Hole always has the potential of an ambush, particularly now that the under-achieving Russell is out as the signal-caller for the black and silver. With such good vibes among the Bengals, hard to imagine why they signed Larry Johnson. Oh well. BENGALS, 30-14.

Take San Diego plus 3 over Denver

Two teams sharing top spot in the AFC West but going in different directions. Bolts are coming on strong while the Broncos have lost their last three including week ago against lowlife Redskins. Worse yet, they've apparently lost their starting QB, Orton, in favour of Chris Simms, who hasn't played for some two years. Rivers on a hot-streak as the Chargers' QB. CHARGERS, 24-20.

Take Chicago plus 3 over Philadelphia

No way can Cutler be as brutal as he was last week, when he threw five INTs including two in the red or scoring zone. Heck, even with his brutality, he almost directed the Bears to the game-winning TD in the final minute only to have a pass picked off in the end zone. Bears committed $30M to this guy, so they've got a vested interest in having him succeed. Upsetting Eagles would help the public relations campaign at least. EAGLES, 28-27.

Take Tennessee plus 4 1/2 over Houston

After starting 0-6, Titans have won three in a row and are still talking about the potential of getting into the post-season tournament. Don't forget, this team won its first 10 games last season, so running off a streak isn't totally out of the question. Texans will provide solid test, however. TEXANS, 27-23.

Bruce Hallihan

Against The Spread Record:

Last Week: 8-7; Season: 82-61-1

Straight Up Record:

Last Week: 8-7; Season: 95-49

Take Detroit minus 3 1/2 over Cleveland

The Lions showed up at Seattle last week, trailing 25-20 late. The same can't be said for the Browns, who've been outscored 77-9 the last three games and are travelling on a short week. The last time we expected the Lions to win a game at home, they lost (17-10 to the Rams). Nevertheless, we'll take our chances again. LIONS, 20-13.

Take Buffalo plus 8 1/2 over Jacksonville

There's a disturbing pattern developing: the 'dogs are starting to bite back. With Miami's win at Carolina on Thursday night, the underdogs are 28-14 against the spread the last three weeks and a game. So that's the reason I'm picking against nine favourites this week. Foolish, perhaps, but why be conservative all season? In this case, the Jags haven't been too impressive their last two home games, needing OT to subdue St. Louis and only beating K.C. by three. The Bills and Titans were tied 17-all in the fourth quarter last week, so I'll take the points. JAGS, 23-17.

Take Kansas City plus 10 over Pittsburgh

This is the first home game in a month for the Chiefs, who lost by 11 here to the Giants and by six in overtime to Dallas. K.C. lost by just a field goal at Jacksonville and upended the Raiders at Oakland last week, 16-10. The Steelers want to rebound after losing to Cincy, sure, but they may not go flat out for 60 minutes with a road trip to Baltimore up next. STEELERS, 24-16.

Take Baltimore pick 'em over Indianapolis

In their last home game, the Ravens hammered the Broncos 30-7. With four of their next five games at home, it's time for the Ravens to start stringing some wins together. The Colts are the ultimate first challenge. They destroyed Baltimore 31-3 in Indy last season and are 9-0 overall. But this is the Colts' first road game in a month and there could be an emotional letdown after Sunday night's shocking win against New England. Let's live dangerously: RAVENS, 23-20.

Take New York Giants minus 6 1/2 over Atlanta

The Falcons are 4-0 at home but just 1-4 on the road. As well, the Giants caught a break during their bye week when both the Cowboys and Eagles lost. Now the NFC East is wide open again. With a road trip to Denver for Thanksgiving Thursday, I expect the Giants to snap their four-game losing streak in convincing fashion. GIANTS, 26-16.

Take San Francisco plus 6 1/2 over Green Bay

After getting a much-needed win, 17-7 over Dallas, the Packers get to stay home before heading to Detroit on U.S. turkey day. The 49ers, at 4-5, have had 10 days to prepare for this game and still have faint playoff hopes. San Fran has shown up on the road: beat Arizona by 4, lost by 3 at Minnesota, by 3 at Houston and by just 4 at Indy. Let's hope the trend continues: PACKERS, 23-17.

Take Seattle plus 11 over Minnesota

The Seahawks beat the Lions by 12 and, last week, the Vikings beat the Lions by 17. This is the third road game in four weeks for the Seahawks, so it won't be easy to stay within single digits of Minnesota, especially with Julius Jones out. But we refer again to the 28-14 underdog stat and side with Seattle to cover. VIKINGS, 30-20.

Take Washington plus 11 over Dallas

Another double-digit spread, but this one's a division rivalry to boot. This is the first home game in a month for the Cowboys, but the Redskins traditionally play them tough. Washington won 26-24 at Dallas last season and lost by just four, 14-10, at home. The Redskins have a 3-6 record but only one of those losses have been by more than 10 points. COWBOYS, 24-17.

Take Tampa Bay plus 11 over New Orleans

Here comes another double-digit spread, but this one's a division rivalry AND the home team is the big 'dog. After beating Green Bay and almost beating the Dolphins in Miami, the Bucs have made it clear they haven't packed it in despite their 1-8 record. The host in this series is 9-3 against the spread and last season's games were decided by four and three points. New Orleans won by five at St. Louis and is on the road again. SAINTS, 28-20.

Take St. Louis plus 9 over Arizona

The Cardinals are 4-0 on the road, but this is their third road game in four weeks and the Rams gained some confidence by pushing the Saints last week, losing only 28-23.

When something seems to good to be true, it usually is. Cards win, Rams cover. CARDINALS, 27-20.

Take New York Jets plus 10 1/2 over New England

The Patriots are 5-0 at home and are looking to avenge a 16-9 loss to the Jets in Week 2. As well, you just know Tom Brady, who threw for 375 yards against the Colts, will want to throw for 575 so there are no two-minute warning dilemmas facing his head coach. But I think the Jets are a live 'dog. Yes, they've lost four in a row, but by 4, 3, 5 and 2 points. Now they have to lose by 11 to not cover. The Patriots beat Miami 27-17. The Jets are similar. PATRIOTS, 27-17.

Take Cincinnati minus 9 1/2 over Oakland

We hereby interrupt our pattern of picking underdogs by backing the Bengals. How could anyone endorse the Raiders, who've been outscored by an average margin of 26-9 the last three weeks? The Bengals, on the other hand, faced the punishing defences of Pittsburgh and Baltimore and outscored those two teams 35-19 to improve to 7-1. Oakland, then hosting Cleveland and Detroit. Cincy should be 10-1 in no time. BENGALS, 26-10.

Take San Diego plus 3 over Denver

The Broncos won 33-24 at San Diego five weeks ago, but the Chargers have won four in a row since then. Sure, the Chargers were expected to breeze past K.C. and Oakland, which they did, but how about the last-minute win at the Meadowlands over the Giants and putting up 31 points on Philly's defence last week? That's impressive. CHARGERS, 26-20.

Take Philadelphia minus 3 over Chicago

The Bears have lost four of five and their only win was over the lowly Browns. The Bears have the NFL's easiest schedule and somehow they've managed to win only four of nine games. After beating the Giants 40-17, the Eagles took two steps back by losing to Dallas and San Diego. But the Bears are considerably weaker than the Cowboys and Chargers. EAGLES, 26-17.

Take Houston minus 4 1/2 over Tennessee

The Titans lost by just a single point, 13-12, at Houston last December and scored 24 unanswered fourth-quarter points to pull away from the Bills last week. But the Texans, after two seasons of finishing at 8-8, look like they're finally capable of staying above the .500 mark. They gained confidence by pushing the Colts (20-17 loss) before their bye week. With 15 days to prepare, give me Houston. TEXANS, 27-20.

 

Disabled

Commenting has been disabled for this item. Existing comments appear below but you may not add a new comment at this time.
Advertisement
Advertisement

Search Articles